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AQ Election Poll Findings Announced 22nd April 2010 To order a copy of this Briefing Paper free of charge, click here
The findings of this AQ poll on perceptions of the arts community on the General Election campaign thus far could make for sober reading at Conservative Party headquarters and provide possible comfort to Labour and the Liberal Democrats. Compared to the findings of our Autumn 2009 poll on this topic, our latest findings indicate that views have shifted considerably away from the near inevitability of Conservative victory on 6th May towards the prospect of a 'hung Parliament'. Looking to the study conducted by AQ into possible outcomes of a 2010 General Election last September when some 81% of respondents foresaw a clear Conservative win, in this latest poll, just 45% of respondents feel that a Conservative victory is likely, nearly all of whom (some 42% of the total) now envisage a majority of under 25 seats being the outcome. Most significantly in this latest poll, 31% of respondents feel that a 'hung Parliament' is most likely which could place the smaller parties in a pivotal role in the formation of a new government compared to just 4% believing that a 'hung Parliament' could happen in last September's survey. Close to 12% now feel that a modest Labour victory could be delivered compared to no respondents holding that view back in September '09. Of all the leaders of the three major political parties, David Cameron is felt to be the Prime Ministerial candidate least likely to empathise with cultural issues among our respondent group. If elected with an overall majority, the arts sector is clearly brace itself for a turbulent period ahead as is evidenced elsewhere in our findings where even greater proportions of respondents than in any of our other surveys looking at post recession/ election impacts are forecasting significant cuts in activities in the years ahead. At the time this poll was conducted, 48% of our respondents felt that none of the leaders of the three main parties had demonstrated any clear empathy with issues relating to the arts in the course of and run up to the campaign. Among those who expressed a clear preference however, the greatest proportion, some 36%, felt that Gordon Brown was the party leader most likely to empathize with cultural concerns. 11% felt that Nick Clegg would demonstrate an affinity for the arts whereas less than 4% of respondents felt that David Cameron was likely to demonstrate any empathy in the course of the campaign or indeed thereafter. Mindful that this poll coincided with the manifesto launch period and there have been statements on cultural policy in the run up to the election, there still remains much to be done by all three major political parties to demonstrate any clear commitment to the arts. Just over half of respondents to this survey (54%) felt that none of the big three parties had been sufficiently explicit about their pledges to the arts. Among those who felt that there had been some degree of commitment, 20% felt that Labour had been clear on its pledges - the highest rated of the three parties, 13% saw clarity within the Conservative manifesto and just 8% saw clarity in the Liberal Democrat's policies. When asked further what issues respondents would like to see the parties pledging to support, those issues scoring most highly included a commitment to retain levels of statutory support at existing levels, tax reform to incentivize private sector philanthropy, further reform of ACE to ensure maximum levels of funding to art forms and above all, wider recognition and visible commitment to the creative industries as a growing business sector within the wider UK economy. While some of these issues have indeed featured in presentations by some of the parties, the level of take up by the sector clearly continues to remain low given low recognition indices among respondents. Looking forward to the immediate post Election period irrespective of electoral outcome, respondents continue to foresee significant change in the years ahead. Respondents across all art forms recognized the need to build private sector fundraising capacity as a means to make up any potential shortfalls in statutory funding under a new administration. Alongside this, respondents envisaged a need to cut public programmes and institute significant cost reduction programmes in order to survive government cuts and the continuing impacts of the recession. Looking further forward beyond the first year of the new Parliament, a significant proportion of respondents listed the prospect of having to make staff redundant alongside delaying recruitment to vacant posts as a likely impact of government cuts. This has been the first time that this response has registered in the top five most likely impacts, having asked this question of the sector over two earlier waves of recession impacts research in 2009.
To order a copy of this Briefing To receive a copy of this Briefing Paper free of charge contact AQ Research by clicking here
Respondent Profile & Methodology 854 completed organizational responses to this survey were received during the period 6th April, the date the General Election was called until 16th April, the date after which the first live television debate took place. Those identifying themselves as responding from arts organizations numbered a total of 695. In terms of posts held, 74% identified themselves as being of senior management level (CEO/ Artistic Director level through to departmental heads) 43% of respondents originated from the Greater London area, 10.5 % from the South East, 8% from Yorkshire, East Midlands and West Midlands each, 6% from the South West and North East each, 5% from East of England and North West. No responses were received from Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. 12% or respondents cited having an annual turnover of more than £5m, 26% of more than £1m but less than £5m, 18% of more than £500k but less than £1m, 20% of more than £250k but less than £500k and 14% of under £250k p.a. 10% of respondents did not know their annual turnover. The greatest proportion (35.5%) were drawn from the theatre/drama community, 19.7% from the museums and galleries sector, 10.5% from dance, 10% from music and 8.7% from multi-art-form venues. All other art forms were represented at percentages ranging from 7% to 1.5%. 89% or respondents stated that they receive regular funding from a statutory funding body such as ACE or MLA. 92% of respondents stated that they currently undertake private sector fundraising. AQ distributed its online survey to a total of 2558 named contacts held on its own email list on 6th April 2010. The survey remained live for completion until 16th April 2010. Three subsequent email reminders were dispatched to contacts over the duration that the survey remained live. The opportunity to participate in the survey was also promoted via Twitter throughout the period that the survey remained live. For further information on AQ's Research activities contact John Nicholls via john@artsquarter.co.uk |
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